How many times have you heard doubters criticising the accuracy of climate change models?
"Well it's 2019, where's all the snow!?"
A new study on the models made in the 70s has stuck a potato up the tailpipe of these same doubters.
In the 1970s, scientists first began using computers to extrapolate global data on carbon emissions.
This time of unknowns in tech and theory lead to much criticism of the technology's reliability.
This came at a time when both technology and awareness of a global effect of rising carbon dioxide levels appeared.
The new study on these models actually has some interesting results.
Today's climate change models are far more advanced. From punch card readers to computing trillions of calculations in 1 second.
The original climate change researchers compared annual average surface temperatures from 17 forecasts.
Made from 14 separate computer models spanning 31 years between 1970 and 2001.
A team of scientists discovered that the pre-computer dependent models of climate change fared better than most detractors would like to admit.
The results...
Ten forecasts found NO STATISTICALLY-SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROJECTED DATA AND THE RISE IN TEMPERATURE.
And some that missed this level of significance only missed by a margin of 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade.
Why?
The data used to calculate the rate of emissions was too lenient because WE CREATED MORE EMISSIONS THAN THOUGHT POSSIBLE.
The number of emissions after the 70s was worse than even projected and skewed the data.
Also, a data set was inaccurate due to the oversight of methane in the atmosphere and the drop of Freons.
Plus, the model accounted too much on factors such as economy, emission reductions, and other societal and geopolitical circumstances not easily accounted for.
In a nutshell, climate models have been around for a very long time.
They've also been ridiculed just as long.
However, now we have hard data to suggest that there is significant standing in these models that predicted accurately and continue to do so.
By examining these past models we can work with advanced computer technology to develop the accuracy of our projections.
Love ARSE?
Hit the link below to grab your supporter merch as we thrust harder into the deep unknown...
#Space_Aus
